Euro credit upgrades continue to dominate in early 2026, maintaining a 4:1 lead over downgrades. Following a strong 2025, where 20 “rising stars” (issuers upgraded from high-yield to investment-grade) outpaced 14 “fallen angels” (issuers downgraded to high-yield), four companies (Unicaja Banco, Abanca Corporación Bancaria, National Bank of Greece, and Autostrade per l’Italia) have already climbed to high-grade status this year, totaling EUR 2.9 billion. In contrast, only one fallen angel (Illimity Bank) has slipped to high-yield.
This migration reflects credit resilience despite geopolitical instability and slowing growth. While rising-star momentum remains solid, rating flows may balance out later in 2026 due to slowing growth and Middle East downgrade risks. Notably, the potential pool for fallen angels still exceeds that of rising stars.
