Quarterly Investment Letters

The Quarterly Investment Letters provide investors with the latest market views that also contain macro-economic scenarios and investment recommendations written by the Senior Portfolio Managers at Alpinum Investment Management.
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Q2 2024-Quarterly Investment Letter

Core economies sustained late-stage expansion, while China pursued policy adjustments aimed at stimulating economic growth. Market optimism drove the S&P 500 to record highs, supported by robust economic indicators, including a strong job report and

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Q1 2024-Quarterly Investment Letter

The economy faces a slowdown with rising capital costs, yet resilient consumers and government support avert an imminent recession. Markets expect a “soft landing” economic cooling. Market sentiment pivoted favourably as the perception of inflation

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Q4 2023 – Quarterly Investment Letter

The economic outlook is soft, but not disastrous. US economy demonstrates strong resilience, highlighted by robust labour market conditions, and documented by a solid 2.4% annualized real GDP growth rate in Q2. There are no

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Q3 2023 – Quarterly Investment Letter

Despite the negative turn in the economic cycle, the presence of a resilient consumer base and favourable government policies have mitigated the risk of an immediate recession and minimized the potential for a severe economic

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Q2 2023-Quarterly Investment Letter

The economic environment presents challenges for investors as market expectations diverge from reality. Despite positive signs in Europe and China, stubborn inflation, deteriorating quarterly dynamics in the US and stagnant eurozone growth add to the

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Q1 2023-Quarterly Investment Letter

The economic cycle has turned negative, driven by increased inflationary forces and geopolitical issues. The US economy could experience a period of stagflation, the eurozone most likely a mild recession, and China will be held

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Q3 2022 – Quarterly Investment Letter

Rising inflation pressures forced central banks around the world to reverse the loose monetary policy. A faster-than-expected tightening of the financial conditions weighs on the global economy. Increasing uncertainty about a possible recession in late

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Q2 2022-Quarterly Investment Letter

Inflation pressure is mounting and we deal with a mature business cycle with the risk of entering into a period of stagflation. In the short-term, economic downside risks are rising. Central banks weigh price stability

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Q1 2022-Quarterly Investment Letter

Central banks will likely remain cautious about tightening too quickly and global GDP growth is expected to reach 4.4% in 2022. While the new Omicron variant is highly contagious and should delay the recovery process

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Q4 2021 – Quarterly Investment Letter

Global GDP growth is reaching peak levels and inflationary pressures are building. After outstanding returns in equities and bonds, investors will have to adjust their long-term return expectations if the principle of “mean reversion” holds

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Q3 2021 – Quarterly Investment Letter

Governments and central banks remain commit-ted to generous stimulus measures. This in combination with consumer pent-up demand and a strong wave of capital expenditures form a robust backdrop for the global economy. GDP growth in

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Q2 2021-Quarterly Investment Letter

The world is reaching an inflection point in defeating the pandemic, resulting in a possible regime change in inflation, a steepening of the yield curve, equity sector rotation and possibly a revival of commodity prices.

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Q1 2021-Quarterly Investment Letter

Investors seem to be living in the best of all worlds. No central bank or government wants to remove economic support too quickly and monetary policy will remain very stimulative. Joe Biden won the US

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Q4 2020-Quarterly Investment Letter

Over the next 3-6 months we expect global economic growth to be reasonable, based on the outlook for a viable vaccine, central banks’ ultra-loose monetary policy and governments’ fiscal stimulus measures reaching over USD 13

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Q3 2020 – Quarterly Investment Letter

The Covid-19 pandemic has led to drastic actions around the world. Never before in history has it been so easy for Western governments to increase fiscal expenditures through debt. All of this supported by central

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Q2 2020-Quarterly Investment Letter

With a global recession now a certainty, government bond yields remain very low and offer no long-term investment perspective, but help diversifying the portfolio as of now. Credit spreads in some market segments have reached extreme levels and led

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Q1 2020-Quarterly Investment Letter

Global manufacturing is likely to see a moderate rebound over the next 3-6 months. Hence, a near term recession is highly unlikely. US GDP growth decelerates in 2020. However, consumer spending, driven by low inflation,

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Q4 2019-Quarterly Investment Letter

Global growth is receding but (US) consumer confidence remains strong and as long as corporates’ capital expenditures do not further deteriorate, the likelihood for a near-term recession in the US or China is low. US

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Q3 2019-Quarterly Investment Letter

The US Fed is the dog that wags the tail. US Treasury futures forecast two rate cuts this year, which will prolong the economic cycle and prevent the USD from further strengthening. US GDP growth

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Q2 2018 – Quarterly Investment Letter

The first months of 2018 experienced a fast comeback of volatility. Almost all traditional asset classes performed negatively in Q1-2018, putting alternative strategies back in the spotlight to diversify and optimize future performance expectations. Economic

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Q4 2017 – Quarterly Investment Letter

Continued global growth recovery while inflation remains surprisingly low. Equity markets are still leading the way in an environment where all risky assets have done very well since the beginning of the year. Investment Grade

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Q3 2017 – Quarterly Investment Letter

Global growth is set for a moderate rebound, both in developed and emerging economies. Risks to global growth are linked to China, where financial bubbles are forming, and to geopolitics, where North Korea is the

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Q2 2017 – Quarterly Investment Letter

The first four months of the year were very positive for risky assets as investors focused on the positive impacts resulting from the U.S. upcoming pro-growth policies. Global equities posted a gain of +7.9% during

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Q1 2017 – Quarterly Investment Letter

We are witnessing the transition from monetary stimulus to fiscal stimulus (tax cuts, infrastructure spending) and from disinflation to relation. The rise of populism in the Developed Markets is finally forcing governments to adopt more pro-growth

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Q4 2016 – Quarterly Investment Letter

Markets showed high levels of complacency brushing aside the negative Brexit vote consequences as all risky assets quickly recouped their losses. Global growth has softened but shows signs of stabilization. US elections dominate market sentiment

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Q3 2016 – Quarterly Investment Letter

Global growth will only be moderately affected by Brexit. In Europe, where there will be months of uncertainty affecting business and consumer sentiment, we expect a larger impact. Interest rate levels of government bonds have

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Q1 2016 – Quarterly Investment Letter

Ignoring unpredictable exogenous shocks, we expect that economic growth will be positive but moderate. Although market sentiment is negatively biased we do not see the typical signals of an impending recession. For instance there is

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Q4 2015 – Quarterly Investment Letter

As stated in the previous letter, global growth remains heavily affected by the antagonistic forces of deflationary impulses (energy, commodities), announced monetary tightening (the Fed and Bank of England) and continued monetary stimulus (ECB, Bank

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Q2 2015 – Quarterly Investment Letter

Global growth is happening but it remains sluggish. The economic impact of the gigantic QE measures, at global level, remain underwhelming. Please note that in Q1 2015 alone, more than 20 central banks lowered their

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Q1 2015 – Quarterly Investment Letter

Finally, the US will be in the lead to promote economic growth. The majority of other countries are lagging behind. This economic mismatch brings the synchronicity of expansive monetary policies amongst the big players to

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