Quarterly Investment Letters

Geopolitics remained central, as the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption lifted energy, freight and inflation premia, before a preliminary US-Iran accord reduced tail risks. The US economy remained an inflationary expansion, with resilient

Geopolitics dominated the quarter, as Venezuela, Greenland-related tariff tensions, and the Iran conflict disrupted trade routes, triggered an oil shock, and revived stagflation concerns globally. The US economy remained broadly resilient, though growth slowed, labour

A higher-nominal world has emerged, driven by persistent fiscal deficits, rising protectionism and competitive currency devaluations that structurally elevate inflation and interest rates. In the fourth quarter, global activity remained resilient, holding up despite renewed

A higher-nominal world has emerged, driven by persistent fiscal deficits, rising protectionism and competitive currency devaluations that structurally elevate inflation and interest rates.  The IMF raised global growth forecasts to 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1%

Global GDP growth slowed to around 3%, with the US expanding at approximately 2% and the eurozone stabilizing, supported by resilient domestic demand. Q2 2025 saw heightened volatility (Iran–Israel conflict) as renewed US trade tensions

The US economy demonstrated resilience, with short-term softness from policy uncertainty offset by long-term strength, as a robust labour market sustained 2.8% GDP growth in 2024 amid rising inflation pressures. Macroeconomic challenges, including heightened policy

The US economy showed resilience, with 2.8% GDP growth driven by robust consumer spending and AI investments, despite vulnerabilities from subdued business and government expenditures. Donald Trump’s presidential victory prompted market shifts, driving gains in

A weaker US labour market causes downward pressure on wage growth, which softens private consumption and dampens the econom-ic outlook. Inflation moderated in the US and Europe. In August, disappointing US jobs figures and tightening

The global economy is demonstrating resilience, especially for the US, China, and emerging markets. The risk of a global recession has diminished, with emerging markets outperforming advanced economies. Equity markets hit new highs in Q2