The first months of 2018 experienced a fast comeback of volatility.
Almost all traditional asset classes performed negatively in Q1-2018, putting alternative strategies back in the spotlight to diversify and optimize future performance expectations.
Economic leading indicators are softening, but are still not yet flashing warning signs regarding an imminent recession.
The U.S. tax cuts (fiscal stimulus) should add around 0.8% to 1.3% to the US GDP growth in 2018/19.
Latest tariffs’ dispute between the U.S. and China casts doubts on a potential fully-fledged trade war. The Chinese economy has already started to cool down/normalize.
The USD could technically retrace some of its lost ground versus the EUR, but conflicting forces keep our conviction low. The period from 24 to 6 months prior to a recession has provided historically great equity returns.
In fixed income, we keep duration very low, but we still like selective credit risk. We hold on to our overweight positions in European and US syndicated loans.
Secured Lending is in the sweet spot in terms of generating an attractive return, while minimizing the risk of losing capital. But: Avoid asset-liability mismatch in terms of liquidity management!