Investment Blog

How we see the World

A blog is always in transition. The information you publish today might not be valid or accurate any more after two weeks or two years from now. Content, sources, information and links change over time, so make sure you protect yourself from the natural evolution of blog content.

Alpinum Investment Management’s Blog offers an opportunity to share some of the knowledge we gathered over the years blended with current market trends and activities.

The portfolio management team writes all insights themselves. Due to our expertise, we are also often contacted by media-creatives for statements, which we are pleased to make them available to you.

Please follow us on our LinkedIn Company page and sign-up to our  newsletters to stay up to date on timely topics.

Please read the Terms of Use before continuing with our Investment Blog.

Alpes Valley - Alpinum Investment Funds - Blog

Current Market Outlook

Alpinum Quarterly Investment Letter 2-2020

Q4 2021 – Quarterly Investment Letter

Global GDP growth is reaching peak levels and inflationary pressures are building. After outstanding returns in equities and bonds, investors will have to adjust their long-term return expectations if the principle of “mean reversion” holds true.

The US is the first major developed economy with GDP returning to pre-pandemic levels. Although consumer sentiment has dipped, the “wealth effect” from rising house values and stock prices provides plenty of dry powder for consumers to become an economic engine again.

The European reopening process is well underway and has around a 6mth time lag to the US. If Europe’s fiscal stimulus plans are well implemented and boost the EU’s growth outlook, global fund flows could return to the old continent on a larger scale again.

Uncertainties to China’s GDP growth and companies’ earnings dynamics have increased because of political and economic headwinds. The issues in China also mean problems for investors in other emerging markets and the valuation discount is justified.

Full Quarterly Investment Letter Q4-2021

Share on twitter
Share on linkedin
Newsflash

Is inflation about to peak?

Since the beginning of 2021, breakeven inflation has risen sharply, and has reached almost 3% at the end of October, while breakeven inflation has been relatively steady at around 2% over the past decade. Despite the rise in inflation this year, Treasuries have not moved

Read More »

Loans performed well, while high yield faced some headwinds

Leveraged loans continued to perform well during the recent risk-off mode and upmove in interest rates, while US high yield bonds were negatively affected. The floating rate feature in leveraged loans offers a clear advantage to longer duration high yield bonds. In addition, leveraged loans

Read More »

Long-term equity return expectations

The term “mean reversion” assumes that numbers will tend to converge or normalize to the long-term average over time. In economics mean reversion is often referred to GDP growth, interest rates and inflation. In finance it is often referred to earnings growth and valuation multiples,

Read More »

Opportunities in Asian high yield bonds

The Chinese government’s direct interference be it in on education stocks, be it on tech stocks or IPOs (ANT IPO) is a demonstration of power by the authorities and that they are serious about their goals. For now, the recent rout in Chinese equities and

Read More »

Alternative Credit Letter

Alpinum Investment Management’s Alternative Credit Letter offers our experts’ latest assessments on the global credit markets, as well as fiscal and monetary policy developments.

Is inflation about to peak?

Since the beginning of 2021, breakeven inflation has risen sharply, and has reached almost 3% at the end of October, leading to a breakout in short term nominal yields and a bear flattening of the

Read More »

Stay up to date and subscribe to our Alternative Credit Letter.

Concrete stairs credit investment
* indicates required

Please confirm that you would like to receive emails from Alpinum Investment Management AG.


You can unsubscribe at any time by clicking the link in the footer of our emails. For information about our privacy practices, please visit our website.

We use Mailchimp as our marketing platform. By clicking below to subscribe, you acknowledge that your information will be transferred to Mailchimp for processing. Learn more about Mailchimp's privacy practices here.

Insights

In a series of articles on our investment blog, we discuss and present investment opportunities we actively use in our building blocks to form our absolute return portfolios.

Cash Plus Solution

UBS announced that it will charge clients negative interest from July 2021 if cash balances exceed CHF 250’000. Many other banks have followed suit and are also charging negative interest on CHF and EUR cash

Read More »

Direct Lending – Performance Analysis

Direct lending returns have historically been driven by consistent double-digit income returns, with a range between 10% and 12%. The slow decline in credit spreads within the CDLI over the last several years is a

Read More »

Media Coverage

Alpinum Investment Management features in investment management and finance media. From features on our award-winning investment management solutions, to topical inverviews with our Senior Portfolio Managers. See below for highlights of Alpinum Investment Management in the news.

Alex Hinder will es nochmals wissen | finews.ch

Alex Hinder, ein Schweizer Pionier im Bereich passiver Anlageprodukte, hatte im vergangenen April seinen Rückzug aus dem operativen Geschäft angekündigt. Nun hat er doch ein neues, aktives Amt übernommen, wie Recherchen von finews.ch zeigen. Anfang Juli 2021

Read More »

Negativzinsen | Tagesanzeiger

Die UBS hat angekündigt, dass sie ab Juli 2021 Negativzinsen von -0.75 Prozent p.a. auf Bargeldguthaben über CHF 250’000.- erheben wird. Die Post Finance belastet ihren Kunden bereits heute ab einem Guthaben von CHF 100’000.-

Read More »

Quarterly Investment Letters

Alpinum Quarterly Investment Letter 2-2020

Q4 2021 – Quarterly Investment Letter

Global GDP growth is reaching peak levels and inflationary pressures are building. After outstanding returns in equities and bonds, investors will have to adjust their long-term return expectations if the principle of “mean reversion” holds true. The US is the first major developed economy with GDP returning to pre-pandemic levels. Although consumer sentiment has dipped, the “wealth effect” from rising

Read More »
Investment Outlook - Quarterly Investment Letter

Q3 2021 – Quarterly Investment Letter

Governments and central banks remain commit-ted to generous stimulus measures. This in combination with consumer pent-up demand and a strong wave of capital expenditures form a robust backdrop for the global economy. GDP growth in the US is particularly strong and the service sector recovery is now driving the rebound and labor market recovery. The US Fed’s ultimate goal is

Read More »
Q2 Quarterly Reports Investment Management

Q2 2021-Quarterly Investment Letter

The world is reaching an inflection point in defeating the pandemic, resulting in a possible regime change in inflation, a steepening of the yield curve, equity sector rotation and possibly a revival of commodity prices. The US is powering ahead and its GDP growth will likely surprise on the upside with the latest fiscal stimulus programme of USD 1.9 trillion.

Read More »
Alpinum Quarterly Investment Letter

Q1 2021-Quarterly Investment Letter

Investors seem to be living in the best of all worlds. No central bank or government wants to remove economic support too quickly and monetary policy will remain very stimulative. Joe Biden won the US presidency and besides the House, the Democrats have a chance to even get control of the Senate. The economic recovery is intact and consumer spending

Read More »
Alpes Valley - Alpinum Investment Funds - Blog

Want to get the Quarterly Investment Letter straight to your inbox?

* indicates required

Please confirm that you would like to receive emails from Alpinum Investment Management AG.


You can unsubscribe at any time by clicking the link in the footer of our emails. For information about our privacy practices, please visit our website.

We use Mailchimp as our marketing platform. By clicking below to subscribe, you acknowledge that your information will be transferred to Mailchimp for processing. Learn more about Mailchimp's privacy practices here.

Investment Blog Archive

Is inflation about to peak?

Since the beginning of 2021, breakeven inflation has risen sharply, and has reached almost 3% at the end of October, while breakeven inflation has been relatively steady at around 2% over the past decade. Despite

Read More »

Is inflation about to peak?

Since the beginning of 2021, breakeven inflation has risen sharply, and has reached almost 3% at the end of October, leading to a breakout in short term nominal yields and a bear flattening of the

Read More »

Q4 2021 – Quarterly Investment Letter

Global GDP growth is reaching peak levels and inflationary pressures are building. After outstanding returns in equities and bonds, investors will have to adjust their long-term return expectations if the principle of “mean reversion” holds

Read More »

Long-term equity return expectations

The term “mean reversion” assumes that numbers will tend to converge or normalize to the long-term average over time. In economics mean reversion is often referred to GDP growth, interest rates and inflation. In finance

Read More »

Biggest perceived market tail risks

The Bank of America’s most recent Global Fund Manager Survey shows that the biggest perceived market tail risks are in inflation (29%) and a “taper tantrum” (26%). On sector level the survey shows that fund

Read More »

Alex Hinder will es nochmals wissen | finews.ch

Alex Hinder, ein Schweizer Pionier im Bereich passiver Anlageprodukte, hatte im vergangenen April seinen Rückzug aus dem operativen Geschäft angekündigt. Nun hat er doch ein neues, aktives Amt übernommen, wie Recherchen von finews.ch zeigen. Anfang Juli 2021

Read More »

CLOs offer an attractive premium

CLOs (collateralized loan obligations) have always offered an attractive premium to bond or loan spreads, but investors continue to overlook the asset class due to their complexity and as they tend to be less liquid

Read More »

BB CLOs 7.4% vs US HY bonds 3.0%

CLOs have always offered an attractive premium to bond or loan spreads, but investors continue to overlook the asset class due to their complexity and as they tend to be less liquid during market stress

Read More »

Q3 2021 – Quarterly Investment Letter

Governments and central banks remain commit-ted to generous stimulus measures. This in combination with consumer pent-up demand and a strong wave of capital expenditures form a robust backdrop for the global economy. GDP growth in

Read More »

Catalysts needed to keep equity rally

Governments and central banks around the world remain committed to generous fiscal stimulus measures and keeping the cost of capital at historic lows. This combination is about to initiate a new investment cycle as companies

Read More »

Negativzinsen | Tagesanzeiger

Die UBS hat angekündigt, dass sie ab Juli 2021 Negativzinsen von -0.75 Prozent p.a. auf Bargeldguthaben über CHF 250’000.- erheben wird. Die Post Finance belastet ihren Kunden bereits heute ab einem Guthaben von CHF 100’000.-

Read More »

Interest rate volatility calmed down

The steepening of the US Treasury bond yield curve increased the volatility of interest rates overall. This is well illustrated by the MOVE index, an indicator that measures interest rate volatility using the implied volatility

Read More »

Cash Plus Solution

UBS announced that it will charge clients negative interest from July 2021 if cash balances exceed CHF 250’000. Many other banks have followed suit and are also charging negative interest on CHF and EUR cash

Read More »

The new normal

Economies typically normalize again after bust/boom periods with inflation at marginally higher levels. The US is about to reach peak GDP growth levels, due to unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus measures. While the real economy

Read More »

Loan Rating upgrades & downgrades

During 2020, 45% (USD 521 bn) of the loan market by par amount had received a rating downgrade from a total market size of USD 1.2 tn. However, the flood of corporate downgrades has ebbed

Read More »

Sherman ratio -interest risk measure

Year-over-year, the Barclays Global Corporate Investment Grade Bond index (Global Corp IG) has returned +8.3% (duration 7.2 / yield-to-worst 1.7%). The Sherman ratio is an interest rate risk measure and represents the yield per unit

Read More »

Income Returns have descreased

Income returns have decreased by almost 70% for European investment grade bonds and by around 50% for European high yield bonds over 2007 to 2020. European loans, however, have been much less affected as the

Read More »

Rating downgrade cycle has stopped

In 2020, the rating agencies acted as quickly as never before in downgrading the issuer ratings due to the COVID-19 pandemic – very different to 2007/08, when rating agencies were criticized for acting too slowly.

Read More »

Duration heavy IG bonds tanked

In anticipation of a strong economic recovery ahead of us, long term interest rates have spiked from their historical lowest levels This has paid its toll For example, US investment grade bonds suffered a performance

Read More »

Long-term interest rates have spiked

Long-term interest rates have spiked from historical low levels in anticipation of a strong recovery. With the US ISM Services PMI surging to an all-time high of 63.7 points (previous month 55.3), US long-term interest

Read More »

40ft container Shanghai to New York

Chinese producer price inflation (PPI) accelerated from 0.3% year-over-year (yoy) in January 2021 to 1.7% yoy in February 2021. For March, an advance PPI inflation tracker points to an increase of 5% yoy. Global price

Read More »

Q2 2021-Quarterly Investment Letter

The world is reaching an inflection point in defeating the pandemic, resulting in a possible regime change in inflation, a steepening of the yield curve, equity sector rotation and possibly a revival of commodity prices.

Read More »

US treasury yields have risen

US treasury yields have risen from 0.8% end of 2020 to currently 1.7% and bond investors have suffered painful losses on their long-duration bonds (up to -5% ytd). Senior secured loans are valued with a

Read More »

Global reflation

Global reflation continues and inflationary pressures are building. From semiconductor chips to copper, demand is on the rise while capacity remains constrained. While Western governments have largely maintained consumer income, investments into production capacity is

Read More »

10yr US Treasury yields rose 60 bps

Since December 2020, 10yr US Treasury yields rose 60 bps, while expected inflation remained flat at ~2.2%. Inflation (i.e. measured by “PCE” = Price Consumer Expenditures) will likely pick up significantly from current levels of

Read More »

US consumer spending

US consumer spending is the engine of economic growth and is close to 70% of GDP. According to a recent survey by the Harris Poll, 71% of Americans say they miss socializing in restaurants and

Read More »

US bond market

The US bond market has seen the 2yr/10yr US treasury yield curve steepening. The steepening is justified by the cyclical rebound, pent-up demand and higher inflation. Should inflation surprise on the upside and long-term yields

Read More »

SPACs acquisition companies

SPACs are special purpose acquisition companies designed to enable their managers to have funds available to make acquisitions quickly and on an opportunistic basis. Thanks to their asymmetric return profile, SPACs popularity has shot up

Read More »

Government Bonds slide

Year-to-date long-term government bonds have slid across the world, reflecting investors’ expectations of an economic recovery. The US Treasury 7-10yr total return index is down -1.7% ytd (current yield 1.18%), while the German Sovereign 7-10yr

Read More »

Inflation

Inflation remains a distant threat as both the output and unemployment gap will remain meaningful in 2021. That said, year-over-year inflation rates will temporarily jump as numbers were extremely depressed at the nadir of the

Read More »

Economic Stimulus

No central bank and no government wants to remove economic support too quickly and there is plenty of economic stimulus for companies profit margin to recover over the coming months. This is thanks to the

Read More »

Q1 2021-Quarterly Investment Letter

Investors seem to be living in the best of all worlds. No central bank or government wants to remove economic support too quickly and monetary policy will remain very stimulative. Joe Biden won the US

Read More »

Europe is back in partial lockdown

Europe is back in partial lockdown and economic volatility is expected to be higher beginning of 2021. At the same time, the European Central bank continues to press on the gas pedal and Eurozone money

Read More »

Investment Grade credit tightened

Investment grade (IG) bond credit spreads have further tightened and have reached almost pre-Covid levels. The upside of IG bonds is limited taking into account their embedded “duration” feature. In comparison, spread levels in the

Read More »

Credit spreads almost at pre-Covid levels

During the market rally in November, credit spreads have further tightened and reached almost pre-Covid levels in the investment-grade category, whereas spread levels are still wider in the high-yield market. OAS of broad US investment-grade

Read More »

Rating downgrade slowed down

Year-to-date US high yield corporate rating downgrades accumulated to more than 475 – even surpassing the previous crisis in 2008. The up-/downgrade ratio (proportion of upgrades among total rating actions of Moody’s and S&P) marked

Read More »

Central banks purchased 6 tln debt

In the first half of 2020, major central banks purchased USD 6 trillion in public and private sector debt. In comparison, the same central banks spent USD 1.5 trillion on quantitative easing measures after the

Read More »

Q4 2020-Quarterly Investment Letter

Over the next 3-6 months we expect global economic growth to be reasonable, based on the outlook for a viable vaccine, central banks’ ultra-loose monetary policy and governments’ fiscal stimulus measures reaching over USD 13

Read More »

Zeit für selektive Kreditinvestitionen | finews.ch

Mitte Juni 2020 kündigte die US-Notenbank an, nebst Anleihen-ETF’s auch ausgewählte Obligationen zu kaufen, um einen funktionierenden Markt für Unternehmensanleihen zu gewährleisten. Dies ist ein historischer Schritt und ein positives Zeichen für einen Markt, der

Read More »

Q3 2020 – Quarterly Investment Letter

The Covid-19 pandemic has led to drastic actions around the world. Never before in history has it been so easy for Western governments to increase fiscal expenditures through debt. All of this supported by central

Read More »

Q2 2020-Quarterly Investment Letter

With a global recession now a certainty, government bond yields remain very low and offer no long-term investment perspective, but help diversifying the portfolio as of now. Credit spreads in some market segments have reached extreme levels and led

Read More »

Boredom is King | cash.ch

Heinz Rüttimann, Senior Portfolio Manager with a current assessment of corporate bonds and the corona crisis. Since 23 February, the stock markets have tended to know only one direction: downwards, due to the global spread

Read More »

COVID-19 – Hong Kong Tourism

The Hong Kong Tourism Board November 2019 number for visitor arrivals to Hong Kong dropped to 2.6 million. This is close to half of the long-term average since 2011 of 4.65 million arrivals per month.

Read More »

Contingent Convertibles (CoCos)

Yields on US and European contingent convertible bonds (CoCo) have dropped to 4.2% and 2.7%, respectively, and option adjusted spreads (OAS) are below -1.8 standard deviations for both segments. Investors are flocking to the deeply

Read More »

Search for yield continues

The search for yield continues and the spread between the Barclays B rated US High Yield index and US treasuries narrowed to just 300 bps or a yield to worst of 4.9%. This is the

Read More »

Wipe out Investor’s yield

The duration of the Barclays Global Corporate Investment Grade Bond index has increased from 5.9 end of 2013 to 6.9 end of 2019. During the same time period, the yield-to-worst fell from 2.9% to 2.2%

Read More »

Q1 2020-Quarterly Investment Letter

Global manufacturing is likely to see a moderate rebound over the next 3-6 months. Hence, a near term recession is highly unlikely. US GDP growth decelerates in 2020. However, consumer spending, driven by low inflation,

Read More »

Asian USD High Yield Corporate Bonds

The yield spread among Asian USD high yield corporate bonds (7.3% yield) and US high yield corporate bonds (5.6% yield) remains attractive at 170bps. If the US and China manage to agree on a “phase-one”

Read More »

US Export numbers weaken

While business sentiment and export numbers are weakening, the consumer is in good health and remains the backbone of the US economy. Personal consumption advanced by +2.9% (Q3 annualized) and helped to prop up US

Read More »

US/China Trade War

Market nervousness regarding the US/China trade war may have reached a temporary peak and has calmed down. At the same time, the yield spread between Asian USD High Yield Corporate Bonds (yield-to-worst 7.7%) and Global

Read More »

S&P Global Credit Rating

S&P Global Credit Ratings continue to deteriorate and Q3 2019 saw 164 downgrades versus 64 upgrades. This is the lowest ratio (0.39) since 2015 with the majority of the cuts being applied to the high-yield

Read More »

Q4 2019-Quarterly Investment Letter

Global growth is receding but (US) consumer confidence remains strong and as long as corporates’ capital expenditures do not further deteriorate, the likelihood for a near-term recession in the US or China is low. US

Read More »

New Mandate for swisspartners-CEO | finews.ch

Zurich-based Alpinum Investment Management, the asset manager of the Swiss Marcuard Heritage Group, is expanding its Board of Directors with Markus Wintsch, CEO of Swisspartners Group. External Link: finews (German) Meet the Alpinum Investment Management Team.

Read More »

30-year German bond yielding -0.11%

Germany has the world’s first 30-year bond priced with a yield of -0.11%. In fact, Germany’s whole yield curve is now below 0%, meaning that the government is effectively being paid to borrow out to

Read More »

German 10-year bond yield

Germany’s 10yr bond yield is about to fall below the European Central Bank’s deposit rate as speculation abounds that more policy easing may be coming. The negative yield environment has accentuated even more and forces

Read More »

Q3 2019-Quarterly Investment Letter

The US Fed is the dog that wags the tail. US Treasury futures forecast two rate cuts this year, which will prolong the economic cycle and prevent the USD from further strengthening. US GDP growth

Read More »

USD Index

Technically the USD index (DXY) has broken through its 200-day moving average. Expected US Fed rate cuts for the rest of the year and signs of slower growth ahead should begin to erode the US

Read More »

Direct Lending – Performance Analysis

Direct lending returns have historically been driven by consistent double-digit income returns, with a range between 10% and 12%. The slow decline in credit spreads within the CDLI over the last several years is a

Read More »

ECB more easing

The European Central Bank is prepared for more easing and the search for yield has become even more pressing. Whether right or wrong but 5yr Greek government bonds yield now less than 5yr Italian government

Read More »

Secured Lending – Insight

In einer Serie von Fachartikeln thematisieren und präsentieren wir Investment Opportunitäten, welche aktiv als Bausteine in unseren Absolute Return Portfolios eingesetzt werden. Bislang haben wir die folgenden Themen vorgestellt: “Structured Credit”, “Direct Lending” und Anlagen

Read More »

Q2 2018 – Quarterly Investment Letter

The first months of 2018 experienced a fast comeback of volatility. Almost all traditional asset classes performed negatively in Q1-2018, putting alternative strategies back in the spotlight to diversify and optimize future performance expectations. Economic

Read More »

Secured Lending backed by an asset

Generally, a “secured” loan is backed (or secured) by an asset. Hence, the borrower pledges an asset (i.e. in our example a property), as collateral in favour of the loan. In the event that the

Read More »

Q4 2017 – Quarterly Investment Letter

Continued global growth recovery while inflation remains surprisingly low. Equity markets are still leading the way in an environment where all risky assets have done very well since the beginning of the year. Investment Grade

Read More »

Q3 2017 – Quarterly Investment Letter

Global growth is set for a moderate rebound, both in developed and emerging economies. Risks to global growth are linked to China, where financial bubbles are forming, and to geopolitics, where North Korea is the

Read More »

Q2 2017 – Quarterly Investment Letter

The first four months of the year were very positive for risky assets as investors focused on the positive impacts resulting from the U.S. upcoming pro-growth policies. Global equities posted a gain of +7.9% during

Read More »

Q1 2017 – Quarterly Investment Letter

We are witnessing the transition from monetary stimulus to fiscal stimulus (tax cuts, infrastructure spending) and from disinflation to relation. The rise of populism in the Developed Markets is finally forcing governments to adopt more pro-growth

Read More »

Direct Lending – a growing Asset Class

In a world of historical low interest rates and (very) high debt burdens combined with an economic outlook that foresees only moderate global GDP growth, it is a fair assumption that structural inflation pressure should

Read More »

Q4 2016 – Quarterly Investment Letter

Markets showed high levels of complacency brushing aside the negative Brexit vote consequences as all risky assets quickly recouped their losses. Global growth has softened but shows signs of stabilization. US elections dominate market sentiment

Read More »

Q3 2016 – Quarterly Investment Letter

Global growth will only be moderately affected by Brexit. In Europe, where there will be months of uncertainty affecting business and consumer sentiment, we expect a larger impact. Interest rate levels of government bonds have

Read More »

Q1 2016 – Quarterly Investment Letter

Ignoring unpredictable exogenous shocks, we expect that economic growth will be positive but moderate. Although market sentiment is negatively biased we do not see the typical signals of an impending recession. For instance there is

Read More »

Q4 2015 – Quarterly Investment Letter

As stated in the previous letter, global growth remains heavily affected by the antagonistic forces of deflationary impulses (energy, commodities), announced monetary tightening (the Fed and Bank of England) and continued monetary stimulus (ECB, Bank

Read More »

Q2 2015 – Quarterly Investment Letter

Global growth is happening but it remains sluggish. The economic impact of the gigantic QE measures, at global level, remain underwhelming. Please note that in Q1 2015 alone, more than 20 central banks lowered their

Read More »

Q1 2015 – Quarterly Investment Letter

Finally, the US will be in the lead to promote economic growth. The majority of other countries are lagging behind. This economic mismatch brings the synchronicity of expansive monetary policies amongst the big players to

Read More »
error: Content is protected !!