Inflation

Inflation remains a distant threat as both the output and unemployment gap will remain meaningful in 2021. That said, year-over-year inflation rates will temporarily jump as numbers were extremely depressed at the nadir of the recession. The ratio between copper and gold prices is a gauge of economic confidence and has been pointing upwards. The ratio suggests the yield on 10yr US treasury notes to move between 1.5% to 2%.

10 year US Treasury/Copper gold
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