Q4 2018 – Quarterly Investment Letter

Within the next 6 to 9 months we do not expect a recession in the US nor Europe. Growth in the US is primarily driven by personal consumption and European growth rates have become more synchronized.

Chinese growth is softening and the government is preparing measures to stimulate domestic consumption and investment.

Higher US interest rates will keep the US Dollar strong. However, most of the appreciation seems already discounted.

Emerging markets remain under pressure as long as US interest rates trend higher. The key to any rebound is China and India.

Major risks to the global economy are an escalating trade war between the US and China, a hard Brexit and Italian politics leading to another European financial crisis.

Full Quarterly Investment Letter Q4 2018

Alpinum Quarterly Investment Letter 2-2020
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