Governments and central banks remain commit-ted to generous stimulus measures. This in combination with consumer pent-up demand and a strong wave of capital expenditures form a robust backdrop for the global economy.
GDP growth in the US is particularly strong and the service sector recovery is now driving the rebound and labor market recovery. The US Fed’s ultimate goal is to reach “maximum employment” before any interest rate hikes are envisaged.
European GDP growth is lagging the US by around six months. The overall environment is characterized by economic reopening with uncertainties to the summer holiday season in Southern Europe. The ECB continues to dictate the yield curve.
China’s economic data have been moderating lately and a soft outlook remains the base case, despite strong absolute growth numbers. On July 1, China’s Communist Party will celebrate its 100th anniversary under the slogan “follow the Party forever”.