Paradigm Shift In Rates: Higher & Inverse

One of the fastest rate increase paths in modern history has led to a true paradigm shift in US Treasury rates. Compared to one year ago, the rate levels are now higher and have negative term premia causing inversion anywhere beyond the 6-months tenor. Such inversion indicates recession risk, which remains a topic of debate against soft-landing arguments (such as high employment). Regardless of upcoming macroeconomic outcome, return estimates of any risky asset now need to consider close to 5% “risk-free” yield on short term treasuries. From nominal yield perspective this is indeed a paradigm shift versus just one year ago, when the same T-bills earned just above 0%.

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