Inflation pressure is mounting and we deal with a mature business cycle with the risk of entering into a period of stagflation. In the short-term, economic downside risks are rising.
Central banks weigh price stability over economic growth concerns and have started a new hiking cycle. A vicious wage-price inflation spiral is possible.
Geopolitical escalation is a human tragedy. Moreover, it will have a long-lasting impact with a new global trade order and increased unity of the West (“Zeitenwende!”).
More and fast spending for defense and renewable energy in Europe, which leads to new job creation and supports economic growth.
Peak profit margins are under severe pressure in 2022 with rising wages, higher commodity prices, increasing rates and a softer outlook for consumer demand. Price pressure will ease in 2023, but war in Ukraine makes projections difficult.