The world is reaching an inflection point in defeating the pandemic, resulting in a possible regime change in inflation, a steepening of the yield curve, equity sector rotation and possibly a revival of commodity prices.
The US is powering ahead and its GDP growth will likely surprise on the upside with the latest fiscal stimulus programme of USD 1.9 trillion. The US is also ahead of Europe in terms of vaccine doses and defeating the pandemic. The question is to what extent will US consumers spend excess savings.
According to Germany’s Finance Minister, the EU’s vaccination strategy is a “total nightmare”. Europe is still largely in lockdown and falling behind in defeating the pandemic. Consequently, the recovery is postponed to the summer.
China’s GDP is expected to grow by +8.4%. That said, its economic activity has been moderating lately due to weakening domestic demand. At the National People’s Congress, the government announced plans to boost domestic consumption and to make the economy more self-reliant.