In March 2025, there were no defaults in the European high yield market. However, several companies have moved forward with recapitalization plans and will be incorporated into default rate metrics in the coming months.
If the trade war continues to escalate and primary markets remain closed for a prolonged period, it could present challenges for certain issuers with 2026 liabilities who have not yet opted to refinance. As of today, we do not believe this scenario is imminent; however, the very short average maturity in the high yield market amplifies the risk. Within the bond market, we estimate there is EUR 46bn of debt maturing next year including EUR 15bn rated single-B, which is particularly vulnerable to market conditions as most of 2026 CCC-rated issuances are already undergoing restructuring or liability management exercises.
