Interest rate volatility calmed down meaningfully

The steepening of the US Treasury bond yield curve increased the volatility of interest rates overall. This is well illustrated by the MOVE index, an indicator that measures interest rate volatility using the implied volatility of a basket of government bond options. However, the MOVE index is far from its late February peak and is now at the same level as a year ago. The FED’s confirmation that it is deliberately accepting a temporary rise in inflation has reassured the market. Moreover, the economic surprise index has lost further ground, as actual economic performance has fallen short of (high) expectations and hence, implying that peak yield levels reached few months ago should not be tested in the short term.

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