High Yield gross supply in 2025 reached EUR 110 billion, the second highest level on record and broadly in line with the market forecasts, representing an 8% increase from 2024. Corporate issuance rose 20% year on year to EUR 90 billion, driven mainly by the consumer and communications sectors. In contrast, banking issuance declined sharply, down 63% from 2024, bringing total financial supply to EUR 20.8 billion from EUR 28 billion. Most financial issuance was linked to maturities, resulting in a strongly negative net supply, which was further amplified by the large number of rising stars as several peripheral banks moved up to investment grade.
The High Yield refinancing premium, which stood at a 65bps premium at the end of 2024, shifted to a 17bps discount by December. Looking ahead, we expect record gross high yield supply in 2026 of around EUR 140 billion, including EUR 110 billion from corporates and EUR 30 billion from financials, supported by an unprecedented EUR 62 billion in upcoming maturities.
