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Since the beginning of 2021, breakeven inflation has risen sharply, and has reached almost 3% at the end of October, leading to a breakout in short term nominal yields and a bear flattening of the yield curve. Now, markets price in two rate hikes in H2 2022. Over the past decade, breakeven inflation has been
Is inflation about to peak? Read More »
Leveraged loans continued to perform well during the recent risk-off mode and upmove in interest rates, while US high yield bonds were negatively affected. The floating rate feature in leveraged loans offers a clear advantage to longer duration high yield bonds. In addition, leveraged loans offer a similar credit spread and only a slightly lower
Loans performed well, while high yield faced some headwinds Read More »
Leveraged loans held steady during the risk-off mode in the 2nd half of September. While US high yield bonds were negatively affected by higher trending interest rates and falling equity markets, leveraged loans benefitted from their floating rate feature. In addition, the robust performance of leveraged loans was also driven by strong demand from institutional
Loans performed well, while HY bonds faced some headwinds Read More »
While high quality bonds with close to zero yields haven’t offered a feasible investment opportunity since a long time, equities rallied over the last 18 months. However, equities trade now at elevated levels in a historical context and annualized return expectations over the next 10 years are only in the low to mid single digits,
Average down – future equity returns will be lower Read More »
Der S&P 500 feiert Rekordstände und der Markt strotzt nur so vor guten Prognosen für den amerikanischen Auswahlindex. Der Schweizer Vermögensverwalter Alpinum sieht die Chancen auf hohe Renditen aber schwinden. Von wegen “lahmer” August: Der schlechte Ruf des Monats an der Börse hat sich dieses Jahr nicht bewahrheitet. Der S&P 500 der US-Börse dürfte das
Weshalb sich Aktienanleger beim S&P 500 auf weniger Rendite einstellen müssen | Cash.ch Read More »
The term “mean reversion” assumes that numbers will tend to converge or normalize to the long-term average over time. In economics mean reversion is often referred to GDP growth, interest rates and inflation. In finance it is often referred to earnings growth and valuation multiples, such as price-earnings (P/E), price-to-book (P/B) and price-to-sales (P/S). The
Long-term equity return expectations Read More »
The Chinese government’s direct interference be it in on education stocks, be it on tech stocks or IPOs (ANT IPO) is a demonstration of power by the authorities and that they are serious about their goals. For now, the recent rout in Chinese equities and Asian high yield bonds may seem like a local issue,
Opportunities in Asian high yield bonds Read More »
The Treasury yields fell substantially in July, especially at the long end of the curve. Moreover, current Fed fund future prices point to a more moderate pace of rate hikes, as the chart illustrates. It remains to be seen whether recent price movements represent an overreaction, especially in the event that labor supply constraints will
No Fed Fund Rate increase anytime soon Read More »
The option adjusted spread (OAS) over US Treasuries for B rated US high yield bonds has recently hit its major historical resistance level of 290bps (currently 341bps). In other words, the credit risk premium has shrunk to a level where extra bond returns from spread compression has become very limited. While we recommend a cautious
Credit risk premium at major resistance level Read More »
Within the S&P 500 index, the technology sector makes up 27% of the index, reached a price/sales ratio of 7.5x and has become more expensive than it ever was during the dot-com era. Valuations are extreme but in the current momentum driven market environment IT stocks can continue to overshoot. True, headwinds are building up
High expectations for US tech stocks Read More »
