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A higher-nominal world has emerged, driven by persistent fiscal deficits, rising protectionism and competitive currency devaluations that structurally elevate inflation and interest rates. The IMF raised global growth forecasts to 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026 amid easing tariffs. US growth expectations steadied, as the Philadelphia Fed revised Q3 GDP to 1.3% annualized and […]
Q4 2025 – Quarterly Investment Letter Read More »
The European High Yield market is experiencing a notable surge in issuances aimed at financing dividends, known as dividend recaps. In 2025, these transactions represent nearly 8% of total issued volume, compared to the 0-2% range observed between 2019 and 2023 and 6% in 2024. June recorded a record volume of €3.7 billion, equivalent to
European High Yield Dividend Recaps Surge Read More »
AT1 bonds are trading with historically high yields and coupons, giving some investors the impression of both attractive carry and certainty of calls in the future. However, an important metric that we believe has often been overlooked during this period is the reset spread. The reset spread is the additional yield added to a market
AT1 reset spreads tightening increase the extension risk Read More »
Small and medium-sized bond issues in Europe offer higher spreads than their U.S. equivalents. This premium reflects the unique structure of the European market, where investors are often rewarded for navigating less liquid and more complex securities. Europe’s bond market is fragmented due to different tax systems, legal frameworks and bankruptcy regimes across countries. This
European credit offers an attractive risk reward opportunity Read More »
Discover how hedge funds navigated the first part of the year 2025. The Alpinum Hedge Fund Insight contains a brief review of the hedge fund landscape. The focus topic sheds light on profitable environments for hedge funds – it is not only volatility, also dispersion is an important variable. Dispersion in markets is at a
Hedge Funds Review & Outlook 07/2025 Read More »
Global GDP growth slowed to around 3%, with the US expanding at approximately 2% and the eurozone stabilizing, supported by resilient domestic demand. Q2 2025 saw heightened volatility (Iran–Israel conflict) as renewed US trade tensions and 25% tariffs disrupted global trade flows, dampening sentiment despite resilient US GDP growth. Equities sold off sharply in April
Q3 2025 – Quarterly Investment Letter Read More »
As of the end of May, the European High Yield index delivered a return of over 1.3%, fully erasing the losses from March and reaching new highs for the year at 2.30%. Despite this strong performance, the European High Yield market continues to offer an attractive medium and long-term opportunity, considering that default rates are
Attractive Breakeven Cushion in European High Yield Read More »
High Yield bonds delivered a modest total return of 0.28% in April. This was supported by a 30 basis points rally in Bunds and a solid 0.4% carry, which helped counterbalance a 36 basis points widening in spreads and a larger excess return loss of 0.8%. The performance reflects a partial rebound from the early-April
High Yield Carry Offsets Spread Widening Read More »
In March 2025, there were no defaults in the European high yield market. However, several companies have moved forward with recapitalization plans and will be incorporated into default rate metrics in the coming months. If the trade war continues to escalate and primary markets remain closed for a prolonged period, it could present challenges for
European High Yield Maturity Wall & Tariffs pressure Read More »
The US economy demonstrated resilience, with short-term softness from policy uncertainty offset by long-term strength, as a robust labour market sustained 2.8% GDP growth in 2024 amid rising inflation pressures. Macroeconomic challenges, including heightened policy uncertainty and escalating tariff risks, particularly in manufacturing and trade, were compounded by the Trump administration’s 25% steel and aluminium
Q2 2025-Quarterly Investment Letter Read More »
