Quarterly Investment Letter

Geopolitics remained central, as the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption lifted energy, freight and inflation premia, before a preliminary US-Iran accord reduced tail risks. The US economy remained an inflationary expansion, with resilient nominal demand, slower growth, firm labour markets, renewed price pressure and Fed policy anchored in higher-for-longer. Europe weakened into a

Geopolitics dominated the quarter, as Venezuela, Greenland-related tariff tensions, and the Iran conflict disrupted trade routes, triggered an oil shock, and revived stagflation concerns globally. The US economy remained broadly resilient, though growth slowed, labour markets softened at the margin, inflation stayed above target, and the policy mix became increasingly politicised. Europe improved modestly from

A higher-nominal world has emerged, driven by persistent fiscal deficits, rising protectionism and competitive currency devaluations that structurally elevate inflation and interest rates. In the fourth quarter, global activity remained resilient, holding up despite renewed tariff pressures and persistent geopolitical tensions. The US economy saw moderating growth, easing inflation pressures, and rising policy and trade

A higher-nominal world has emerged, driven by persistent fiscal deficits, rising protectionism and competitive currency devaluations that structurally elevate inflation and interest rates.  The IMF raised global growth forecasts to 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026 amid easing tariffs. US growth expectations steadied, as the Philadelphia Fed revised Q3 GDP to 1.3% annualized and

Global GDP growth slowed to around 3%, with the US expanding at approximately 2% and the eurozone stabilizing, supported by resilient domestic demand. Q2 2025 saw heightened volatility (Iran–Israel conflict) as renewed US trade tensions and 25% tariffs disrupted global trade flows, dampening sentiment despite resilient US GDP growth. Equities sold off sharply in April

The US economy demonstrated resilience, with short-term softness from policy uncertainty offset by long-term strength, as a robust labour market sustained 2.8% GDP growth in 2024 amid rising inflation pressures. Macroeconomic challenges, including heightened policy uncertainty and escalating tariff risks, particularly in manufacturing and trade, were compounded by the Trump administration’s 25% steel and aluminium

The US economy showed resilience, with 2.8% GDP growth driven by robust consumer spending and AI investments, despite vulnerabilities from subdued business and government expenditures. Donald Trump’s presidential victory prompted market shifts, driving gains in US small- and mid-cap equities on deregulation expectations, while tariff policies amplified global stagflation risks, particularly in trade-dependent regions. US

A weaker US labour market causes downward pressure on wage growth, which softens private consumption and dampens the econom-ic outlook. Inflation moderated in the US and Europe. In August, disappointing US jobs figures and tightening measures from the Bank of Japan triggered sharp market reactions, with the VIX rising to its highest level since COVID-19.

The global economy is demonstrating resilience, especially for the US, China, and emerging markets. The risk of a global recession has diminished, with emerging markets outperforming advanced economies. Equity markets hit new highs in Q2 2024, bolstered by strong economic fundamentals and growing investor confidence. Persistently high inflation led to diminished expectations for a significant