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Investors tend to extrapolate historical returns into the future, and this is something that will not work in the current climate, Reto Ineichen, CEO of Alpinum Investment Management, says in an interview. External Link: Finews Asia. Meet the Alpinum Investment Management Team. Share on linkedin Share on twitter
We are creative an go beyond the obvious | Finews Asia Read More »
The Hong Kong Tourism Board November 2019 number for visitor arrivals to Hong Kong dropped to 2.6 million. This is close to half of the long-term average since 2011 of 4.65 million arrivals per month. Early indicators show a continuing drop going into 2020 and the damage to Hong Kong’s economy from the coronavirus outbreak
COVID-19 – Hong Kong Tourism Read More »
Yields on US and European contingent convertible bonds (CoCo) have dropped to 4.2% and 2.7%, respectively, and option adjusted spreads (OAS) are below -1.8 standard deviations for both segments. Investors are flocking to the deeply subordinated notes because negative interest rates and enhanced bank capital buffers have bolstered the appeal of their higher coupon payments.
Contingent Convertibles (CoCos) Read More »
The S&P 500 index is trading at the highest level over its 200-day moving average since 2000. Various technicals for the S&P 500 are extended, begging the question on how long the rally can last. An overbought condition has been relatively clear since the beginning of the year. That said, the clearance of trade risks
S&P 500 – over 200-day moving average Read More »
The search for yield continues and the spread between the Barclays B rated US High Yield index and US treasuries narrowed to just 300 bps or a yield to worst of 4.9%. This is the lowest level since July 2007 for B rated bonds which sit just above the riskiest CCC debt. From a historical
Search for yield continues Read More »
The duration of the Barclays Global Corporate Investment Grade Bond index has increased from 5.9 end of 2013 to 6.9 end of 2019. During the same time period, the yield-to-worst fell from 2.9% to 2.2% and the Sherman ratio decreased from 0.5 to 0.3. A Sherman ratio of 0.3 implies that interest rates have to
Wipe out Investor’s yield Read More »
Global manufacturing is likely to see a moderate rebound over the next 3-6 months. Hence, a near term recession is highly unlikely. US GDP growth decelerates in 2020. However, consumer spending, driven by low inflation, low interest rates and full employment continues to drive the cycle. Europe grows below trend, but finally some political risks
Q1 2020-Quarterly Investment Letter Read More »
The yield premium between Greek 10yr government bonds (1.4%) and Italian 10yr government bonds (1.2%) has not been that narrow since 2009. This despite the fact, that Greece is a non-investment grade country with a BB- Fitch rating (Fitch BBB rating for Italy) and its debt/GDP ratio stands at 181% versus 134% for Italy. Investors’
Narrowing yield premium: Greece vs. Italy Read More »
The yield spread among Asian USD high yield corporate bonds (7.3% yield) and US high yield corporate bonds (5.6% yield) remains attractive at 170bps. If the US and China manage to agree on a “phase-one” trade pact, tensions should ease and provide the necessary market stability for spreads to narrow and the price for Asian
Asian USD High Yield Corporate Bonds Read More »
While business sentiment and export numbers are weakening, the consumer is in good health and remains the backbone of the US economy. Personal consumption advanced by +2.9% (Q3 annualized) and helped to prop up US gross domestic product (GDP), which expanded at 1.9% on an annualized basis. Chances are remote for the US to fall
US Export numbers weaken Read More »
