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Alpinum Investment Management’s Blog offers an opportunity to share some of the knowledge we gathered over the years blended with current markets trends and activities.
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We do not expect a recession in the U.S. and in Europe for the next 6 to 9 months. U.S. tax cuts and increased government spending will keep the U.S. economy relatively strong. Chinese growth is softening but the PBoC is carefully standing ready to ease conditions to prevent any escalating contraction. The trade tensions […]
Q3 2018 – Quarterly Investment Letter Read More »
The first months of 2018 experienced a fast comeback of volatility. Almost all traditional asset classes performed negatively in Q1-2018, putting alternative strategies back in the spotlight to diversify and optimize future performance expectations. Economic leading indicators are softening, but are still not yet flashing warning signs regarding an imminent recession. The U.S. tax cuts
Q2 2018 – Quarterly Investment Letter Read More »
Generally, a “secured” loan is backed (or secured) by an asset. Hence, the borrower pledges an asset (i.e. in our example a property), as collateral in favour of the loan. In the event that the borrower defaults, the creditor takes possession of the asset and sells it to recover the amount originally lent to the
Secured Lending backed by an asset Read More »
Global growth momentum to accelerate and to slightly surpass pace of 2017 of 3.6% (estimate) GDP growth. U.S. tax cuts might add up to 0.5% of U.S. GDP growth. China’s GDP growth is expected to soften towards 6.5% while reforms will continue. Stay pro-risk but get ready to turn more cautious as the year unfolds.
Q1 2018 – Quarterly Investment Letter Read More »
Continued global growth recovery while inflation remains surprisingly low. Equity markets are still leading the way in an environment where all risky assets have done very well since the beginning of the year. Investment Grade bonds have lagged the more credit centric investments such high yield bonds or loans. Loans in Europe, but also in
Q4 2017 – Quarterly Investment Letter Read More »
Most recently, the real yields (nominal 5-year government bond yield adjusted for inflation) in Indian bonds have exceeded the threshold of 5%. While we believe this elevated level will be only temporary, we still expect continued positive real rates in the Indian Rupee as it was the case since 2014, when inflation started to fade.
Indian local bonds offer attractive Yields Read More »
Global growth is set for a moderate rebound, both in developed and emerging economies. Risks to global growth are linked to China, where financial bubbles are forming, and to geopolitics, where North Korea is the biggest threat. The US economy should grow between 2% and 2.5% over 12 months. The proposed policies by Trump will
Q3 2017 – Quarterly Investment Letter Read More »
The first four months of the year were very positive for risky assets as investors focused on the positive impacts resulting from the U.S. upcoming pro-growth policies. Global equities posted a gain of +7.9% during the first four months of the year, with Emerging Markets leading the way on Chinese and commodities’ stabilization. Europe, plagued
Q2 2017 – Quarterly Investment Letter Read More »
We are witnessing the transition from monetary stimulus to fiscal stimulus (tax cuts, infrastructure spending) and from disinflation to relation. The rise of populism in the Developed Markets is finally forcing governments to adopt more pro-growth policies after years of austerity. De-globalization and protectionism are becoming themes with more weight and credibility in context with the
Q1 2017 – Quarterly Investment Letter Read More »
In a world of historical low interest rates and (very) high debt burdens combined with an economic outlook that foresees only moderate global GDP growth, it is a fair assumption that structural inflation pressure should remain tame – at the minimum for the next few years to come. Moreover, central banks responded to the lackluster
Direct Lending – a growing Asset Class Read More »
