TURNKEY SOLUTIONS FOR WEALTH MANAGER AND FUND MANAGER
BLOG
How we see the World
A blog is always in transition. The information you publish today might not be valid or accurate for two weeks or two years from now. Content, sources, information and links change over time, so make sure you protect yourself from the natural evolution of blog content.
Alpinum Investment Management’s Blog offers an opportunity to share some of the knowledge we gathered over the years blended with current markets trends and activities.
All insights are written by the portfolio management team. Due to our expertise, we are also often contacted by media-creatives for statements, which we are pleased to make them available to you.
To stay up to date on timely topics please follow us on our LinkedIn Company page and sign-up to our general newsletter.
Please read the Terms of Use before proceeding.
Chinese producer price inflation (PPI) accelerated from 0.3% year-over-year (yoy) in January 2021 to 1.7% yoy in February 2021. For March, an advance PPI inflation tracker points to an increase of 5% yoy. Global price pressures are building due to the yoy base effect, pent-up demand and on the back of supply chain disruptions. This […]
40ft container Shanghai to New York Read More »
The world is reaching an inflection point in defeating the pandemic, resulting in a possible regime change in inflation, a steepening of the yield curve, equity sector rotation and possibly a revival of commodity prices. The US is powering ahead and its GDP growth will likely surprise on the upside with the latest fiscal stimulus
Q2 2021-Quarterly Investment Letter Read More »
US treasury yields have risen from 0.8% end of 2020 to currently 1.7% and bond investors have suffered painful losses on their long-duration bonds (up to -5% ytd). Senior secured loans are valued with a fixed credit risk premium combined with the money market rate. They are so-called “floaters” and tend to gain in value
US treasury yields have risen Read More »
Global reflation continues and inflationary pressures are building. From semiconductor chips to copper, demand is on the rise while capacity remains constrained. While Western governments have largely maintained consumer income, investments into production capacity is lagging to absorb the recovered spending capacity. Markets have recognized this to some extent and inflation rates are on the
Since December 2020, 10yr US Treasury yields rose 60 bps, while expected inflation remained flat at ~2.2%. Inflation (i.e. measured by “PCE” = Price Consumer Expenditures) will likely pick up significantly from current levels of ~1.4% over the next quarter because of the year-over-year base effect and cyclical market forces. The US Fed announced that
10yr US Treasury yields rose 60 bps Read More »
Since December 2020 US long term nominal yields (US Treasury 10y) rose 60 bps, while expected inflation (US Inflation Swap 5y5y) remained flat at ~2.2% Markets incorporate a benign outlook, but inflation will pick up significantly over the next quarters based on statistical effects (y-o-y comparison) and cyclical forces (economic recovery, lower unemployment, higher commodity prices) Therefore,
Real rates increased while expected inflation did not (yet) move Read More »
US consumer spending is the engine of economic growth and is close to 70% of GDP. According to a recent survey by the Harris Poll, 71% of Americans say they miss socializing in restaurants and bars and 61% say they miss shopping in stores. Growing percentages of people say they’re planning on splurging on vacations,
US consumer spending Read More »
The US bond market has seen the 2yr/10yr US treasury yield curve steepening. The steepening is justified by the cyclical rebound, pent-up demand and higher inflation. Should inflation surprise on the upside and long-term yields continue to rise, the US Fed will have to decide on how to control the yield curve if they don’t
SPACs are special purpose acquisition companies designed to enable their managers to have funds available to make acquisitions quickly and on an opportunistic basis. Thanks to their asymmetric return profile, SPACs popularity has shot up and volumes exceeded USD 80bn in 2020. Within the first six weeks of 2021, SPAC volumes have already reached USD
SPACs acquisition companies Read More »
Compared to the US, trade and manufacturing make up a larger share in the European economy and Europe’s cyclical/defensive stock ratio is a good indicator for the global industrial cycle and the direction of US long-term bond yields. Over the past few months, European cyclicals have strongly outperformed European defensives indicating continuing positive momentum in
Europe’s cyclical/defensive stock ratio Read More »
