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Alpinum Investment Management’s Blog offers an opportunity to share some of the knowledge we gathered over the years blended with current markets trends and activities.
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The Fed’s rate hike path in 2022 is driving up bond yields in all markets. For example, the yields of short-term bonds (1-3 years) in high yield and investment grade bottomed out in 2021 and climbed to a high of 10.2% and 5.3%, respectively, by the end of September 2022. The latter marks a record […]
US investment grade short-term yields reach 10-year record high Read More »
The Fed’s rate hike path in 2022 is driving up bond yields in all markets. For example, the yields of the short-term high yield and investment grade bond indices bottomed out in 2021 and climbed to a high of 10.2% and 5.3%, respectively, by the end of September 2022. The latter is a remarkable rise
US investment grade short-term Yields reach 10-year record high Read More »
The outlook for the global economy is deteriorating. Inflation is peaking but remains at a structurally higher level, the labor market is likely to stay relatively robust, there are no signs of a ceasefire in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, and the energy crisis is worsening as Russia has halted gas exports to Europe. The US economy
Q4 2022 – Quarterly Investment Letter Read More »
We are pleased to announce that we have become a signatory to the UN-supported Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI). Becoming a PRI signatory is an important milestone for us and forms part of our broader strategy. The PRI is recognized as a global network of asset managers, asset owners and service providers to promote sustainable
Alpinum IM becomes PRI Signatory Read More »
In March 2022, the USD swap curve inverted, and by the end of August, the spread between the two- and ten-year maturities fell to -0.6% (see also the Alternative Credit Letter of April), suggesting imminent economic weakness. In June, the Fed funds futures curve also reversed at the back end, pointing to a more dovish
Yield curve indicates economic weakness, lower inflation Read More »
In March 2022, the USD swap curve became inverted and by the end of August the difference between the 2-year vs 10-year tenors fell to -0.6% (see also Alternative Credit Letter in April), a signal of economic weakness ahead. In June this year, the Fed funds futures curve also inverted, pointing to a more dovish
Yield curve indicates economic weakness, lower inflation Read More »
HFM European Performance Awards 2022
Two HFM European Performance Award Nominations Read More »
The peak Fed funds rate is currently priced in at a level of 3.4% (down from >4% in mid-June) for February 2023. However, the shape of the curve is of even greater importance. The inverse shape of the current Fed futures curve indicates that the market expects the Fed to succeed with its measures to
Markets price in a peak Fed Funds Rate of 3.4% in February 2023 Read More »
The peak Fed funds rate is currently priced in at a level of 3.4% (down from >4% in mid-June) for February 2023. However, the shape of the curve is of even greater importance. The inverse shape of the current Fed futures curve indicates that the market expects the Fed to succeed with its measures to
Markets price in a peak rate for Fed Funds of 3.4% in Feb ’23 Read More »
Fixed income markets suffered in June another painful month. For example, high yield bonds are down -7.3% and -16.7% YTD, the worst half-year performance since the global financial crisis in 2008. The sell-off this year has been deep, but the pattern has not matched that of previous ones as it was primarily driven by higher
High yield valuations imply significant economic slowdown Read More »
