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The peak Fed funds rate is currently priced in at a level of 3.4% (down from >4% in mid-June) for February 2023. However, the shape of the curve is of even greater importance. The inverse shape of the current Fed futures curve indicates that the market expects the Fed to succeed with its measures to
Markets price in a peak rate for Fed Funds of 3.4% in Feb ’23 Read More »
Fixed income markets suffered in June another painful month. For example, high yield bonds are down -7.3% and -16.7% YTD, the worst half-year performance since the global financial crisis in 2008. The sell-off this year has been deep, but the pattern has not matched that of previous ones as it was primarily driven by higher
High yield valuations imply significant economic slowdown Read More »
In der aktuellen Ausgabe vom 30. Juni 2022 von «Fokus Finanz» des Tages-Anzeigers geben die Anlageexperten von Alpinum IM in einem Interview Auskunft zum Thema «Absolute Return-Strategien im Aufwind». Sie zeigen auf, weshalb diese Strategien im gegenwärtigen Umfeld sehr gefragt sind, illustrieren ein Investment-Beispiel und erklären die Grundsätze der Absolute Return-Philosophie. Fokus Finanzen 2022 Tagesanzeiger
«Absolute Return-Strategien im Aufwind» | Tagesanzeiger Read More »
The Bloomberg Global Agg. Bond index, which is composed of corporate and government bonds, experienced with a decline of -11.6% year-to-date by far the worst performance on record! The chart below shows the individual calendar year returns of the index since 1992 and illustrates the unprecedented sell-off in high quality bonds in 2022 caused by
Horrific YTD performance for global high quality bonds Read More »
The Bloomberg Global Agg. Bond index, which is composed of corporate and government bonds, experienced with a decline of -11.6% year-to-date by far the worst performance on record! The losing run came only to a halt in mid-May with a loss of -12.4% and recovered only slightly since then. The chart in the monthly spotlight
Horrific YTD performance for global high quality bonds Read More »
The markets are anything but calm at the moment, and this applies to all asset classes. We are feeling comfortable in this environment right now, as our absolute return philosophy and draw down risk management is in full effect. The Alpinum Alternative Investment Strategy is up YTD +3.2%, thanks to selective allocations in differentiating, defensive
Alpinum Alternative Investment Strategy – Downside Resilience Read More »
Yields of US short term low grade bonds broke through the 10-years average of 5.7% and reached a level slightly above 7% in early May. The yield curve steepening by more than 200 bps over the last 6 months (please see chart 2 in the Alternative Credit Letter) has been the main driver of the
Short Term High Yield Rates are attractive again @ 7% p.a. Read More »
Yields of US short term low grade bonds broke through the 10-years average of 5.7% and reached a level of 6.9%. Since the Fed signalled a faster pace of interest rate increases in the coming months, investors divested longer term bonds in favour of their shorter term counterparts. The yield curve steepening by more than
Short Term High Yield Rates are attractive again @ 7% p.a. Read More »
In macro-finance, it is well known that an inverted yield curve is signalling a recession or at the very minimum, it is indicating that the economy is operating in a late cycle. For example, the 2-year/10-year Treasury slope has inverted in advance of 7 of the past 8 recession periods. However, it is a less
Yield curve inversion signals economic weakness ahead of us Read More »
In macro-finance, it is well known that an inverted yield curve is signaling a recession or at the very minimum, it is indicating that the economy is operating in a late cycle. For example, the 2-year/10-year Treasury slope has inverted in advance of 7 of the past 8 recession periods. However, it is a less
Yield curve inversion signals economic weakness ahead of us Read More »
