Quarterly Investment Letter

Within the next 6 to 9 months we do not expect a recession in the US nor Europe. Growth in the US is primarily driven by personal consumption and European growth rates have become more synchronized. Chinese growth is softening and the government is preparing measures to stimulate domestic consumption and investment. Higher US interest […]

We do not expect a recession in the U.S. and in Europe for the next 6 to 9 months. U.S. tax cuts and increased government spending will keep the U.S. economy relatively strong. Chinese growth is softening but the PBoC is carefully standing ready to ease conditions to prevent any escalating contraction. The trade tensions

The first months of 2018 experienced a fast comeback of volatility. Almost all traditional asset classes performed negatively in Q1-2018, putting alternative strategies back in the spotlight to diversify and optimize future performance expectations. Economic leading indicators are softening, but are still not yet flashing warning signs regarding an imminent recession. The U.S. tax cuts

Global growth momentum to accelerate and to slightly surpass pace of 2017 of 3.6% (estimate) GDP growth. U.S. tax cuts might add up to 0.5% of U.S. GDP growth. China’s GDP growth is expected to soften towards 6.5% while reforms will continue. Stay pro-risk but get ready to turn more cautious as the year unfolds.

Continued global growth recovery while inflation remains surprisingly low. Equity markets are still leading the way in an environment where all risky assets have done very well since the beginning of the year. Investment Grade bonds have lagged the more credit centric investments such high yield bonds or loans. Loans in Europe, but also in

Global growth is set for a moderate rebound, both in developed and emerging economies. Risks to global growth are linked to China, where financial bubbles are forming, and to geopolitics, where North Korea is the biggest threat. The US economy should grow between 2% and 2.5% over 12 months. The proposed policies by Trump will

The first four months of the year were very positive for risky assets as investors focused on the positive impacts resulting from the U.S. upcoming pro-growth policies. Global equities posted a gain of +7.9% during the first four months of the year, with Emerging Markets leading the way on Chinese and commodities’ stabilization. Europe, plagued

We are witnessing the transition from monetary stimulus to fiscal stimulus (tax cuts, infrastructure spending) and from disinflation to relation. The rise of populism in the Developed Markets is finally forcing governments to adopt more pro-growth policies after years of austerity. De-globalization and protectionism are becoming themes with more weight and credibility in context with the

Markets showed high levels of complacency brushing aside the negative Brexit vote consequences as all risky assets quickly recouped their losses. Global growth has softened but shows signs of stabilization. US elections dominate market sentiment in the short term and we expect the FED to raise rates in December. Equity markets have rebounded in July

Global growth will only be moderately affected by Brexit. In Europe, where there will be months of uncertainty affecting business and consumer sentiment, we expect a larger impact. Interest rate levels of government bonds have reached all-time low levels, including negative nominal yields in countries like France, Italy or Spain. Many investors have not yet